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Choosing Stocks and Timing Buy and Sell Decisions: Trend-Based, Evidence-Driven Strategies That Work
- What to do, how and when to do it, and why
- Specific advice backed by modern statistical tests that identify consistently successful combinations of indicators
- Techniques for identifying early weaknesses, maximizing gains, and protecting capital
- By Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, the world’s most influential technical analyst
There’s only one way to successfully compete with Wall Street’s “big boys”: use algorithmic systems, just like they do. Fortunately, you can. Thanks to the wide availability of derivatives, cheap computing, and low-cost, high-speed trading platforms, you can run algorithmic systems that are proven statistically and can operate almost automatically.
In this book, world-renowned technical analysis expert Charles D. Kirkpatrick II presents these systems and the evidence that supports them. Building on exhaustive research, Kirkpatrick shows why relative strength systems deliver consistent profits. Next, he drills down to identify the optimal elements of such systems, including lookback periods, ranks/ratios for portfolio changes, minimum trading volumes, and techniques for limiting the impact of market declines.
Kirkpatrick’s final results are practical and robust. Based on easy-to-interpret ADX, forward line, and 3-bar reversal charts, they are easy enough for virtually any investor to use, with any size portfolio.
At its foundation, technical analysis involves recognizing and analyzing trends and identifying the best investment strategy to take advantage of them. Most traders and investors who look for trends do so by analyzing a long list of charts on a continuing basis. In Kirkpatrick's Investment and Trading Strategies, world-renowned technical analysis researcher Charles D. Kirkpatrick II presents tested, pinpoint approaches to stock investing that are far more effective and efficient.
Drawing on statistical testing of markets from 1990 to the present, Kirkpatrick identifies combinations of technical tests that have consistently delivered the best performance. Using them, he shows how to identify stocks that are now demonstrating the strongest relative and absolute strength. Next, he identifies specific trend following indicators most likely to identify the first signs of trend reversals--and, thus, the right time to sell.
Throughout, Kirkpatrick offers detailed, practical, and example-rich guidance for using these indicators, providing all the detail you need to implement an investment strategy that is both profitable and risk-averse.
- Tested, trend-based indicators you can understand and rely on
Choose the right stocks--and the right times to buy and sell them - Protect your capital with DMI, ADX, and other key technical indicators
Discover your true risk of loss and systematically protect against it - Why Kirkpatrick’s relative strength system works so well
Understand the statistics behind the system--in as much detail as you’d like - Using the system after you’ve implemented it
Realistic examples and step-by-step instructions
- Sales Rank: #520682 in Books
- Brand: Brand: FT Press
- Published on: 2013-08-09
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.25" h x .58" w x 6.25" l, .0 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 160 pages
Features
- Used Book in Good Condition
Review
“This book should be in the library of every serious trader, investor or portfolio manager. It brings out clearly the essential elements needed to construct and test systems for investing and trading successfully in stocks. The author vigorously backtests algorithmic, rule based systems. Writing in plain, understandable language, the author clarifies the advantages of the ‘walk forward’ method for testing and optimizing strategies and the importance of well-defined exit rules for risk control and profitability. Indeed, everything from portfolio stock selection to short-term trading systems are well defined and thoroughly tested.”
--Hank Pruden, Ph.D., Professor of Golden Gate University and Chairman of Technical Securities Analysts Association of San Francisco
“Charles Kirkpatrick does an excellent job of laying out a complete investment strategy, from stock selection through money management. Even seasoned pros will learn something new about relative strength, ADX, and optimization.”
--Lawrence G. McMillan, President of McMillan Analysis Corp. and author of Options as a Strategic Investment
“The wisdom of a true master! My highest recommendation! Kirkpatrick, a highly respected professional at the peak of his long and varied investment career, distills all of his 47 years of intensive study and experience into this concise book that spells out in detail his best strategies--so that you can profit from his deep, hard-won knowledge.”
--Robert W. Colby, CMT, author of The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators
“Charles Kirkpatrick has been producing top-notch work for years, as evidenced by his multiple Dow Awards and top-rated books. And his work keeps getting better. He doesn’t just hypothesize about market movements. He backs up his ideas with real, quantified data. This book is another very impressive addition to the Charles Kirkpatrick library of work. Well done!”
--Rob Hanna, founder of QuantifiableEdges.com and OvernightEdges.com
“Kirkpatrick’s latest work is a great companion to his book Beat the Market: Invest by Knowing What Stocks to Buy and What Stocks to Sell. He walks the reader step by step through his logic and then demonstrates the results by statistically valid test procedures. This is the Kirkpatrick Investment Theory updated and proven, plus a few extra studies to improve performance once again.
“For those of us who use his approach regularly, his latest work will improve and confirm his investment concepts. For those not familiar with his work, this book may inspire them to rethink what methods they are using. The backtested results are that impressive.
“Kirkpatrick’s latest work addresses two significant areas. First, his investment approach is reviewed, tested, and refinements applied; then it is retested using walk forward techniques. The other area covered, and one that should not be overlooked, is his testing techniques and theories on how to evaluate stock selection and portfolio changes. He shows the reader how to focus on significant parameters that are most important while trying to avoid the dangers of optimization. The result is a robust system with a high probability of excellent performance in the future.”
--Thomas Hamilton, President of Special Risk Capital Management, LLC
“When someone has been successfully involved in the markets and in particular technical analysis for almost half a century, you should pay attention to what he has to say. Charlie Kirkpatrick is such a person, one who has a solid grasp of how markets work and how to develop a process for profiting in them. I cannot begin to count the number of times I have read about someone’s system and found that it was poorly designed, inadequately tested, and in many cases, used for some other motive than to provide a systematic approach to profiting in the market. Charlie has conquered all of these shortcomings in this book with a solid, well-constructed, thoroughly documented, and viable approach to systematic trading.”
--Gregory L. Morris, author of Investing with the Trend, Chairman of Investment Committee, and Chief Technical Analyst of Stadion Money Management, LLC
“On the Venn diagram of financial market study, this book fits into the coveted overlap between technical, quantitative, and fundamental approaches. It addresses one of the key questions that all three methods ask: How can the relative performance of stocks to one another be used to create a profitable investing approach? Kirkpatrick walks the reader through the necessary elements to comprehend and build robust market timing and stock selection systems. He addresses the murky issues of optimization and quantifying trend and also focuses in on his preferred indicators and uses for cycle analysis, based on 40+ years of market experience. No fancy software required--Kirkpatrick presents systems that can be implemented and managed using the most basic of tools. A great read for anyone looking to approach the markets more systematically, making the most of their capital and time.”
--Hima Reddy, CMT, author of The Trading Methodologies of W.D. Gann
From the Back Cover
Trend-Based, Evidence-Driven Strategies That Work
“This book should be in the library of every serious trader, investor, or portfolio manager. It brings out clearly the essential elements needed to construct and test systems for investing and trading successfully in stocks. The author vigorously backtests algorithmic, rule-based systems. Writing in plain, understandable language, the author clarifies the advantages of the ‘walk forward’ method for testing and optimizing strategies and the importance of well-defined exit rules for risk control and profitability. Indeed, everything from portfolio stock selection to short-term trading systems are well defined and thoroughly tested.”
--Hank Pruden, Ph.D., Professor of Golden Gate University and Chairman of Technical Securities Analysts Association of San Francisco
“Charles Kirkpatrick does an excellent job of laying out a complete investment strategy, from stock selection through money management. Even seasoned pros will learn something new about relative strength, ADX, and optimization.”
--Lawrence G. McMillan, President of McMillan Analysis Corp. and author of Options as a Strategic Investment
“The wisdom of a true master! My highest recommendation! Kirkpatrick, a highly respected professional at the peak of his long and varied investment career, distills all of his 47 years of intensive study and experience into this concise book that spells out in detail his best strategies--so that you can profit from his deep, hard-won knowledge.”
--Robert W. Colby, CMT, author of The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators
At its foundation, technical analysis involves recognizing and analyzing trends and identifying the best investment strategy to take advantage of them. Most traders and investors who look for trends do so by analyzing a long list of charts on a continuing basis. In Kirkpatrick’s Investment and Trading Strategies, world-renowned technical analysis researcher Charles D. Kirkpatrick II presents tested, pinpoint approaches to stock investing that are far more effective and efficient.
Drawing on statistical testing of markets from 1990 to the present, Kirkpatrick identifies combinations of technical tests that have consistently delivered the best performance. Using them, he shows how to identify stocks that are now demonstrating the strongest relative and absolute strength. Next, he identifies specific trend following indicators most likely to identify the first signs of trend reversals--and, thus, the right time to sell.
Throughout, Kirkpatrick offers detailed, practical, and example-rich guidance for using these indicators, providing all the detail you need to implement an investment strategy that is both profitable and risk-averse.
- Tested, trend-based indicators you can understand and rely on
Choose the right stocks--and the right times to buy and sell them - Protect your capital with DMI, ADX, and other key technical indicators
Discover your true risk of loss and systematically protect against it - Why Kirkpatrick’s relative strength system works so well
Understand the statistics behind the system--in as much detail as you’d like - Using the system after you’ve implemented it
Realistic examples and step-by-step instructions
About the Author
Charles D. Kirkpatrick II has spent 45+ years in investing as a security analyst, portfolio manager, block desk trader, options trader, and institutional broker. He continues to publish his Market Strategist letter, calculate award-winning stock-selection lists, write books on trading and investing, and teach technical analysis at universities. He has appeared on CNBC and Wall Street Week and has been quoted in Barrons, Money, and BusinessWeek. Twice the winner of the Market Technicians Association’s prestigious Charles H. Dow Award, he is the coauthor of Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians and author of Beat the Market and Time the Market.
Most helpful customer reviews
8 of 9 people found the following review helpful.
Learn from a master
By TA Trader
This book gives anyone the opportunity to learn how to invest from a master. Mr. Kirkpatick shares knowledge that he has accumulated during his long, successful career in the market. Not only does he share what he does, he shares why he does it. The reader can quickly and easily follow Mr. Kirkpatrick's strategies. Unlike many authors, his book isn't written to sell his software or his services; there is no "secret" witheld from the reader. For the reader who wants to spend a bit more time and be more involved with the trading process, Mr. Kirkpatrick's book provides a wealth of ideas and provides a process for further exploration on the part of the reader. Reading this book is an opportunity to get inside one of the best minds in the industry.
11 of 15 people found the following review helpful.
Spend your $30 elsewhere ...
By Amazon Customer
Really now, this is a tiny book with only 140 pages (not 160) and the 1st 30 or so are spent introducing what he is gonna talk about in the rest of the book. Main thing I got out of this was just to rely more on the ADX indicator (which I already use anyway). Your better off spending your money on Robert Miner's (High Probability Trading Strategies) or Corey Rosenbloom's (The Complete Trading Course) book for near the same cost.
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Another Solid Effort by Kirkpatrick
By Brandon A. Steele
This is the 3rd book by Kirkpatrick that I've purchased. If you are familiar with Kirkpatrick's writing/teaching style, then the evidence-based approach will be familiar. If you haven't experienced Kirkpatrick's scholarship, but instead have experience with other technical analysis writers, understand that the evidence-based approach is far and above most other technical analysis authors (there are only a handful that use an evidence-based approach). Most trading books that deal with technical analysis are not evidence based - basically meaning the authors recommend strategies that may or may not actually work. We cannot know for sure, because their methods haven't been tested.
Kirkpatrick is different. This book reads more like a thesis book for a PhD or similar to an article submitted to a peer reviewed journal. It lays out the methodology, presents how the methodology was developed, and along the way cites to other authorities.
Although another reviewer compares this book to other trend trading books, once you grasp what it means to be evidence-based you quickly realize that it's an insult to compare this book to others on the topic. Kirkpatrick has an IVY League education, has multiple articles published in peer-reviewed journals, has multiple books published (including one that serves as the textbook for the CMT curriculum), holds the CMT designation, and teaches at Brandeis University. He also has four decades of experience in the markets, for decades now writes a monthly newsletter, and has won multiple achievement awards in technical analysis.
As to this book, it presents a methodology for investing over the intermediate term. It's not for day-traders; though I think that day traders can learn things about the indicators discussed. Nor is this a book teaching buy-and-hold. It's also not going to discuss the basics of investing. Kirkpatrick assumes you know somewhat about the markets (or at least investing), so he's not going to explain how order flow works etc.
I think he also assumes that some of the readers out there may have been exposed to non-evidence based books, and portions of the text indirectly debunks some of the ideas that these other books spread. For example, during his presentation of how he tested his methodology, he discusses common ways certain indicators are used and shows why that thinking is flawed. This is also why you cannot merely go off the table of contents and decide whether or not there's value. Yes, he discusses moving averages, but not in a way I've ever read in any of the mainstream technical analysis books. Ditto for his other indicators.
Although another reviewer complained about the length of the book, and that the first part of the book was dedicated to explaining how the methodology was tested, I believe it's quality over quantity. Although it might at first appear that the content related to testing is just filler, in my mind it serves multiple purposes. Like in an academic work, showing how the testing was done allows others to double check the work to ensure that no errors were made. For advanced traders it presents a framework for how a proper test should be conducted. For the beginner, as mentioned earlier, it dispels some of the technical analysis myths. Overall, I think it should give you more confidence in the methodology when compared to a book that skips the testing part and just instructs you to take the authors word for it.
One of the things I would have liked to read more about was with the relative strength selection aspect of his methodology. He does explain what it is, and notes that it can be calculated in a spreadsheet, but the text doesn't really walk through how to actually do the calculations in a spreadsheet. This is what holds me back from giving this text the full 5 stars.
I'll conclude on a positive note: so many of the investment book I read these days are really nothing more than advertisements for the authors website, other books, newsletter, etc. Or, a book will introduce a topic, but the author will refer the reader to a prior work for the full details. Kirkpatrick's book skips all of this. To be sure, there are references to other books, but these are in the context of citations. Kirkpatrick does refer the reader to other books for learning money management, but these are not to his own books. And, that particular subject is beyond the scope of the book. Although Kirkpatrick does have a newsletter, he does not advertise it within the content of the book. What you get is his methodology and how it was tested.
See all 8 customer reviews...
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